Paintmakers Flag Intense Competition and Pricing Pressure, Pin Hopes on Demand Recovery in Q4 FY26

New Delhi, March 2, 2026: The country's leading paint manufacturers expect competitive intensity to remain elevated in the coming months, even as they foresee an improvement in demand and volume growth in the March quarter (Q4), along with sustained margins .

The top management of leading paint companies, in their earnings calls, acknowledged the impact on sales in October and a sustained recovery in November and December. They also pointed out the impact of a shorter festive period, along with a prolonged monsoon, on sales in the December quarter .

Cautious Optimism Amidst Cyclical Recovery

Industry leaders remain cautiously optimistic that cyclical recovery, infrastructure push, and stabilising consumption patterns will support volume growth even as competitive intensity stays elevated .

Asian Paints MD and CEO Amit Syngle said the market continues to witness strong competitive pressure with no signs of a pullback. He added that the company is focusing on structural cost reduction rather than relying on raw material deflation or price-led benefits .

Despite a shorter festive season and prolonged monsoon, Asian Paints reported high single-digit volume growth. Syngle said demand trends across retail, B2B and industrial segments are likely to remain stable in the near term .

"We need to wait for another one or two quarters before we really see some things changing in the market," he said, adding that "progressively we could really say that it could be some improvement which can take place, given the cyclicity of the industry and the fact that possibly in the past also we have seen in terms of that demand coming back" .

Recovery Momentum Building

Kansai Nerolac Paints MD Pravin Chaudhari said the company saw a sharp recovery in November and December after a muted October due to a shorter Diwali. "So, we are seeing that there is a good growth momentum, which is coming back now. And we hope that continues in Q4 as well," he said .

As per the RBI, construction activity would see sustained momentum. The demand momentum generated by GST is expected to continue in the fourth quarter, Chaudhari added. Besides, the automotive segment is expected to maintain growth momentum, and expansion in infrastructure such as railways, roads, airports, and power augurs well for the paint industry and will drive demand for high-end coatings .

When asked about competition intensity, Chaudhari affirmed, "Yes, competition intensity still remains pretty intense" .

Improving Month-on-Month Trends

Berger Paints India MD and CEO Abhijit Roy said demand conditions are showing early signs of gradual improvement. "So, October was negative, November slightly positive, December more positive, January slightly more positive than December, so it is improving month-on-month," he said in the latest earnings call .

The company remains focused on revenue growth and maintaining gross margins within the guided range, he noted. Roy said competitive intensity is expected to remain elevated with no major shifts in market share trends. He added that continued investments in branding, distribution and urban initiatives remain crucial to capture potential demand improvement as and when it keeps happening .

AkzoNobel's Strong Recovery

Expressing similar views, AkzoNobel India CMD Rajiv Rajgopal said, "I do expect the competitive intensity to continue for a couple of quarters". "I think in premium, I don't think that the order is really reversed, while people have tried," he said .

AkzoNobel saw a muted October but bounced back strongly in November, reporting 8 per cent decorative volume growth on a like-to-like basis. Rajagopal expects Q4 to be 'a pretty strong quarter', barring any external disruptions .

Changing Industry Landscape

Asian Paints, Berger Paints, and Kansai Nerolac are the major players in the Indian paint industry, controlling over three-fourths of the market . However, in the last 5-6 years, several new players have entered this market, including Pidilite with Haisha Paints, Grasim with its Birla Opus, and JSW Paints .

The industry has transformed from a stable oligopoly to an open battlefield . By the end of Q4 2025, Asian Paints' share had slipped to about 52% from nearly 59% previously, while challengers like JSW Paints (following its ₹8,986 crore acquisition of Akzo Nobel India's Dulux) have climbed to nearly 10% share, and Birla Opus, launched in 2024, has captured 6.8% market share .

Impact on Margins and Profitability

Operating margins in the sector have come under significant pressure, dropping 300 basis points in FY25 to about 16.5%, with Crisil expecting another 100 basis point fall in FY26 as companies spend heavily to defend market share .

Asian Paints has decided not to indulge in price wars to protect its sales. Amit Syngle told BusinessLine that the company has not really entered the price war because it spoils the industry dynamics. "We had the muscle to put in any pricing in the market, but we do not want to do that," he said, emphasizing that the company focuses on giving value to the consumer, innovation, and brand building .

Despite these pressures, Asian Paints has managed to maintain its PBDIT margins guidance of 18-20 per cent through calibrated efforts .