Dubai Real Estate Update: Over 60% of On-Hold Deals Likely to Close Next Quarter if Uncertainty Eases in 4-8 Weeks
March 3, 2026: Historical trends suggest that Dubai's slowdowns during times of upheaval or crisis, such as pandemic lockdowns and oil price weakness, have usually led to deal deferrals instead of full cancellations. Once things become clearer, activity picks up again strongly, said Morgan Owen, Managing Director for Middle East and North Africa at ANAROCK Group .
"If macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty lasts for another 4-8 weeks but local employment, credit, and flight connections stay strong, it is reasonable to expect that 60-80% of the deals that are currently on hold will go through in the next quarter, albeit some with re-pricing or restructuring," Owen told Hindustan Times Real Estate .
Indian Investors and Capital Flows
Indians are among the largest buyer groups in Dubai's real estate market, accounting for around 10% of property sales in 2025. Owen noted that if perceptions of regional risk continue to rise, a "small but meaningful" shift of capital from Dubai to India could occur .
"The amount of money that NRIs are putting into Indian real estate is rising quickly. If a perception of regional risks consistently goes up, with the operative term being consistently, not just knee-jerk reactions, a small but significant shift of capital from Dubai to India is possible," Owen said .
However, he added that Dubai's structural appeal is likely to prevent abrupt or impulsive reallocations .
Historical Precedents
Following the 2009 global financial crisis, Dubai's property market took several years to recover fully, aided by debt restructuring, regulatory reforms, and mega-events such as Expo 2020. Similarly, after the Covid-19 pandemic, transactions and confidence recovered within 12-18 months, driven by low prices, visa reforms, and strong villa demand .
Investors who deployed capital early during uncertain periods—for example, between 2010 and 2012 or after the Covid recovery—often saw strong long-term returns. "Values went up by as much as 165% in some areas between 2020 and 2025. Prime units almost tripled in value in five years," Owen said .
Structural Resilience
Comparing current market behaviour with past shocks, Owen emphasized that Dubai's property ecosystem today is structurally stronger than it was in 2009. "After Covid, Dubai's economy has been exceptionally robust, with a steady stream of inward migration, the benefits of golden visas, and tax breaks all driving demand. The system is far more resilient now to such shocks, but obviously not totally immune," he said .
However, he cautioned that disciplined entry pricing and asset selection are more important than just a "buying any dip" approach .